By Johnathan Mun
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Additional resources for Advanced Analytical Models
Because only 1,000 trials were simulated, the resulting distribution is fairly close to the specified distributional parameters, and in this case, about a 100% precision. , if you selected the option to automatically generate assumption and if a simulation profile already exists). The results also rank all the selected distributions and how well they fit the data. BOOTSTRAP SIMULATION Bootstrap simulation is a simple technique that estimates the reliability or accuracy of forecast statistics or other sample raw data.
2). , market share and revenue growth rate), management still can make estimates of potential outcomes and provide the best-case, most-likely case, and worst-case scenarios, whereupon a triangular or custom distribution can be created. However, if reliable historical data are available, distributional fitting can be accomplished. Assuming that historical patterns hold and that history tends to repeat itself, historical data can be used to find the best-fitting distribution with their relevant parameters to better define the variables to be simulated.
These methods assume that the distribution of a sample statistic approaches a normal distribution, making the calculation of the statistic’s standard error or confidence interval relatively easy. 34 Nonparametric bootstrap simulation is not normally distributed or easily found, these classical methods are difficult to use. In contrast, bootstrapping analyzes sample statistics empirically by sampling the data repeatedly and creating distributions of the different statistics from each sampling. The classical methods of hypothesis testing are available in Risk Simulator and are explained in the next section.